Treasury Yields Fluctuate

Published August 29, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated throughout the week as investors waited for new economic data reflecting the state of the U.S. economy. Yields continued to vary towards the end of the week as the latest jobless claims data reflected a stable labor market.  

On Thursday, the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that the revised estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a monetary measure of the market value of all goods and services produced in a specific period, increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2025. This surpassed economists’ expectations of a 3.0% annualized gain and reversed the 0.5% decline reported in the first quarter of 2025.

“With the initial brunt of the tariff shock behind us and the economy losing momentum, we expect to see sub-1% GDP growth in the second half of the year,” noted financial market economist at Nationwide, Oren Klachkin. “A weakening labor market and modestly higher tariff-induced inflation will constrain activity through year-end.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of August 25 at 4.26% and traded as low as 4.21% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.89% and traded as low as 4.87% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment were 229,000 for the week ending August 23. This was down 5,000 from the prior week and below expectations of 230,000. Continuing unemployment claims decreased by 7,000 to 1.95 million.

"The unemployment rate has been relatively stable because layoffs are low," said Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, Nancy Vanden Houten. “Going forward, slower labor force growth will also hold down the unemployment rate, masking some of the potential fissures in the labor market.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 8/25 at 4.23%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.93%.